Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Voodoo Markets

History always repeats itself. Anyone know what lies in our near future? Anyone? Anyone?

Friday, October 26, 2012

Weekly Wrap | More Pain

Just for my own records again - the S&P 500 index lost another 1.5% this week, closing out at 1412. That's about 3.5% off it's peak of last month - down, but not out.

It seems like the stock market's still have a little fight left in them, and won't go down in the first few rounds. Personally, I'm still waiting on that knockout punch no one saw coming.

So, I thought I would ask an old clubbing buddy his thoughts of the stock markets in the near term? He's been around the ring a few times and often has confident insight into his opponents capabilities.

Here's his prediction about that fight -

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Black Monday Revisited

Black Monday, October 19, 1987, the largest one-day percentage drop in the history of the Dow, was often attributed to fearful investor behavior and those investors' reactions to perceived dangers in the markets, as opposed to anything being fundamentally wrong with the markets.

But, many experts in the financial world also blamed the crash on computerized programmed trading which, at that time, was just coming into existence.

A lot has changed over the years, and the stock exchanges have created safety valves and circuit breakers designed to help prevent such flash crashes from occurring again. But if you ask me, there's a perfect storm brewing that includes almost everything that was blamed for the Black Monday crash.

Dangers abound when both negative perceptions and reality coincide. And the realities are -

The fundamentals of the markets have still remained corrupted since the Great Recession, sinister and still-unregulated derivatives continue to be sold, heavily financed and unregulated hedge funds litter the landscape, and even more-sophisticated and unfair HFT strategies now predominate trading.

On a macro level, the world's industrialized nations are in severe economic crises, we're experiencing significant disputes in worldwide monetary policy, and bond markets are seriously-concerned with the inevitable rise in interest rates.

Combine all of those factors with the economic (fiscal cliff, unemployment) and political uncertainties (Presidential election, war on terror, and Iranian nuclear capabilities) we're facing in the last quarter of this year and I see a perfect storm brewing for another market crash or significant pullback.

Is there another Black Monday waiting just around the corner? As it often does, history could easily repeat itself. But, don't just take my word for it -

Robert Shiller, a professor at Yale University and co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values, and Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, talk about the 25th anniversary of the so-called Black Monday stock crash and current market risks. They speak with Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle on Bloomberg Television's "Market Makers."

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

On Lions And People

How do mere humans, without fangs or claws, gain an advantage in this market environment?

On Lions and People from ( (( marS )) ) on Vimeo.