Friday, March 8, 2013

Weekly Wrap | It's A Jungle Out There

It's been a while since I've posted a weekly wrap, so it's about time to let my zero readership know what's been going on with my positions and my forecasts, and to keep track about how the stock markets have been performing for my own records.

As I'm sure everyone knows already, the markets have performed well over the past couple of months, especially including this past week. The S&P 500 Index closed out this week at 1551, up 8.8% year to date, and the DJIA has passed pre-recessionary levels to close at record highs.

Economically this week, the jobless rate fell to 7.7% for the first time since December 2008, and job growth outpaced expectations. But there are still many mixed results being reported, including last quarter's "unexpected" -0.1% GDP rate (later revised to +0.1).

Personally, I haven't been posting about market movements because nothing about my portfolio has changed. I sold my position in DEG, and have some open sell orders for a few long-term microcap banks stocks that I've owned for many years, but I'm still sitting fully in cash as I reported back in September 2012. As of this writing, the S&P 500 Index is about 100 basis points ahead of when I moved into cash. So, it looks as though I'm being left behind.

But short-term appearances can be deceiving. Although the stock markets have been rising, nothing concerning my views and opinions has changed. Although the mainstream media seems to be trying to convince the public to invest in stocks right now, I think just the opposite, that it's a good time to get out of stocks.

While my timing may be off, I still fully believe that it's going down, and I'm prepared to stay invested in cash until that happens. I could be wrong now - but I don't think so. Like always, time will tell.

1 comment:

  1. I didn't mention my micro-cap bank stock holdings when I started this blog because they're such a small portion of my portfolio, and because I bought them many years ago.

    Because I didn't mention them beforehand, my readers could just say that I was making them up. So, you're going to have to take a little leap of faith when I disclose them.

    Like I said before, I think this is a great time to sell, so I placed limit orders of those stocks a couple of months ago. Being micro-cap stocks, there isn't very much trading volume, so I expected delays.

    But, I was able to clear my entire positions in CARE and CZBS. Including dividends, I made a small profit on each stock, but nothing spectacular, and nothing to write home about. They didn't make me "rich", but they allowed me to generate some cash to cover my living expenses for the next year.

    For future reference, I'm left holding three other micro-cap bank stocks that won't be as easy to trade - UWHR, SSFC, and MFBP. I have a limit-order in effect for MFBP, but I'm still holding onto the other two.. for now.