Weekly Wrap | Follow Your Intuition

For the week ended September 7th, the S&P 500 Index rose 2.2% to 1,438 (for a year-to-date total return—including price change plus dividends—of about 16.1%), and also reached within 10% of its pre-recessionary record high of 1565 set in late 2007.

Both the Dow (13,307) and the Nasdaq (3136) have also closed at pre-recessionary levels this week. So, do you know what that means? It's time to get out of the stock markets for the rest of this year.

I've always been one who follows my intuitions in both my career and investments, and it's almost never steered me wrong. While I've been bullish since I moved 100% of my investments from cash into stocks near the bottom of the 2008 crash, I feel that the markets have become over-exuberant again and have reached these levels based mainly upon herd mentality behavior.

The contrarian in me says it's time to bail again. So, being the fickle and beautiful woman that she is, I pulled this Jewell of a stock market to the side to explain my feelings to her. To my amazement, she understood my intuitive reasoning and thanked me for the appreciation that I've given her over the past four years, and agreed it was a good idea to part ways. Maybe we'll hook up again in the near future.

So, today I moved my entire IRA, Roth IRA and 529-plan investments into money-market funds. Next week I'll also move my donor-advised fund into cash.

The Big Club

Perhaps George Carlin was right in his assessment of The American Dream.

If you participate in an employer-sponsored retirement plan, then you enjoy a tax break every time you contribute to your account. That's because your contributions are made on a "pre-tax" basis, meaning each dollar you set aside reduces your taxable income.

The upshot of that tax deduction is that 401(k)-style retirement plans "cost" the government money - an estimated $75 billion each year in revenue.

And with Uncle Sam facing serious fiscal challenges, some policymakers and budget analysts see retirement plan tax deductions as a tempting target, according to Ann L. Combs, head of Vanguard's Government Relations unit.

Weekly Wrap

Just like a fickle and beautiful woman. After losing faith in my high opinion of her, listening to others with sinister motives, and coming undone just three short months ago, it looks as though this crazy stock market has come to appreciate my sticking with her throughout the storm, once again.

The S&P 500 gained ground for the fifth straight week, up 1.1% this week, closing at 1406.



But love is a two-way street and I'm not that forgiving. While I'll continue to enjoy her fading beauty and stick with her for the short-term, expect me to soon be looking into investing in something not quite as volatile and with a little more stability. Hopefully, I'll be able to time it right.. knock on wood.

Wooly Bully

The S&P 500 finished the week back at 1391. Like I've said before, it's only temporary pullback, and to wait it out. But, since no gives me any credibility, why not listen to what Matty told Hatty.

The Trickle-Down Theory

"Trickle-down economics" and "the trickle-down theory" are terms in United States politics that refer to the false idea that tax breaks or other economic benefits provided by government to businesses and the wealthy will benefit poorer members of society by improving the economy as a whole.

The term has been attributed to humorist Will Rogers, who during the Great Depression said that -

"The money was all appropriated for the top in the hopes that it would trickle down to the needy. Mr. Hoover didn’t know that money trickled up. Give it to the people at the bottom and the people at the top will have it before night, anyhow. But it will at least have passed through the poor fellow’s hands."


"Share the Wealth" - PP Jokes #28 on Vimeo from Brandon Ray on Vimeo.